The anatomy of a power-play riser, measured over four seasons
79 times in the last four season pairs, a skater's power-play scoring rose by at least 0.15 points per game. This page prints what the official record shows around those jumps — which factor repeats in every pair, which popular explanations do not, and what happened the season after.
The rule that defines a riser is arithmetic, stated once: PP points per game up by 0.15+ between consecutive seasons, 40+ games played in both. No scouting, no adjectives — every skater who clears the bar is in, all 79 of them. A pattern is only called a pattern here when it repeats in every one of the 4 measured season pairs; anything less is printed with its count.
The factor that repeats: the ice time moved first
In every measured pair, risers were far more often skaters whose share of their club's PP ice time had just grown — 52% to 91% of risers, against 10% to 14% of everyone eligible. The box score shows the points after they arrive; the deployment shows the job change as it happens, and this site tracks deployment nightly all season.
| seasons | risers | qualifiers | risers whose PP time share rose | all qualifiers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 25 | 501 | 60% | 14% |
| 2022-23 → 2023-24 | 18 | 505 | 67% | 10% |
| 2023-24 → 2024-25 | 11 | 499 | 91% | 12% |
| 2024-25 → 2025-26 | 25 | 500 | 52% | 12% |
The factors that do not repeat
Two explanations that travel well in August — a change of scenery, a new voice behind the bench — do not hold up as league-wide patterns across these four pairs:
| factor | seasons | among risers | among all qualifiers |
|---|---|---|---|
| changed clubs | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 16% | 26% |
| changed clubs | 2022-23 → 2023-24 | 33% | 25% |
| changed clubs | 2023-24 → 2024-25 | 36% | 33% |
| changed clubs | 2024-25 → 2025-26 | 8% | 23% |
| same club, new head coach | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 44% | 28% |
| same club, new head coach | 2022-23 → 2023-24 | 6% | 25% |
| same club, new head coach | 2023-24 → 2024-25 | 46% | 29% |
| same club, new head coach | 2024-25 → 2025-26 | 52% | 20% |
Age: younger than the field, wider than the folklore
The median riser was 26 on 1 October of his jump season, with 7 NHL seasons behind him — younger than the median qualifier at 29. But the jumps span ages 20 to 39: the record contains third-season jumps and thirteenth-season jumps, and a rule of thumb that names one right year has no support here.
What happened next — and what the luck tells did not tell
Of the 50 jumps old enough to have a next season on the record, 25 held and 25 fell back — an even split. The two most-quoted screening numbers read almost identically on both sides of it:
| measure | held | fell back |
|---|---|---|
| jumps with a measured next season | 50 | |
| held (stayed above the jump's midpoint) | 25 | 50% |
| median second-assist share in the jump season | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| median PP shooting percentage in the jump season | 18% | 19% |
| median change in PP shots per game | +0.31 | +0.16 |
The fifteen largest jumps, with their deployment
| player | pos | seasons | PP points per game | share of club PP time | age | next season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | C | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 0.55 → 0.87 | 80% → 80% | 25 | 0.58 (fell back) |
| Brandon Montour | D | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 0.10 → 0.41 | 27% → 75% | 28 | 0.26 (held) |
| Martin Necas | C | 2023-24 → 2024-25 | 0.17 → 0.47 | 44% → 75% | 25 | 0.31 (fell back) |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | C | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 0.36 → 0.65 | 80% → 78% | 29 | 0.33 (fell back) |
| Gustav Nyquist | R | 2022-23 → 2023-24 | 0.02 → 0.30 | 39% → 57% | 34 | 0.04 (fell back) |
| Evan Bouchard | D | 2022-23 → 2023-24 | 0.16 → 0.43 | 46% → 78% | 23 | 0.32 (held) |
| Miro Heiskanen | D | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 0.16 → 0.43 | 48% → 64% | 23 | 0.30 (held) |
| Artturi Lehkonen | L | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 0.04 → 0.31 | 20% → 67% | 27 | 0.27 (held) |
| Jason Robertson | L | 2024-25 → 2025-26 | 0.23 → 0.50 | 60% → 81% | 26 | — |
| Martin Necas | C | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 0.05 → 0.32 | 37% → 59% | 23 | 0.17 (fell back) |
| Leon Draisaitl | C | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 0.51 → 0.78 | 83% → 80% | 26 | 0.48 (fell back) |
| Lucas Raymond | L | 2023-24 → 2024-25 | 0.20 → 0.45 | 50% → 67% | 22 | 0.34 (held) |
| Charlie McAvoy | D | 2024-25 → 2025-26 | 0.08 → 0.33 | 62% → 62% | 27 | — |
| Mikhail Sergachev | D | 2021-22 → 2022-23 | 0.09 → 0.34 | 30% → 48% | 24 | — |
| Ryan O'Reilly | C | 2022-23 → 2023-24 | 0.09 → 0.34 | 38% → 63% | 32 | 0.21 (fell back) |
Window: the five committed seasons 2021-22 through 2025-26, giving 4 season pairs. All inputs are the league's official reports — skater summaries, PP ice time, bios, per-game coach identity — committed to this site's history and recomputed at every build; thresholds are stated in the text and applied mechanically. This page measures what preceded and followed past jumps; it names no future ones. See how this site measures.
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